WEBINAR: Long Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Event Code :WB1420
Venue :Online Webinar
Host Name :Online Webinar
Coordinator :
s
Date From :08 May 2020
Date To :08 May 2020

Descriptions


Long run economic consequences of pandemics

The SEACEN Centre is very pleased to announce a webinar by Professor Oscar Jorda of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and the University of Southern California: Long-run economic consequences of pandemics. Òscar Jordà is a household name for macroeconomists and central bankers. His most recent research addresses current issues in macroeconomics using historical data and novel empirical methods. His contributions to the economics profession wspan monetary policy, international finance and fiscal policy. He is currently exploring the role of private and public debt on the business cycle, asset prices and the fragility of the financial system, as well as their policy implications. He has also developed methods to study the chronology of the business cycle, the dynamics of macroeconomic systems, and forecasting. Professor Jordà received his Ph. D. in economics from the University of California, San Diego in 1997.

Òscar Jordà is Vice President of Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis. Professor Jordà received his Ph. D. in economics from the University of California, San Diego in 1997. He began his career at the University of California, Davis and joined the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in 2011.

Professor Jordà’s research addresses current issues in macroeconomics using historical data and novel empirical methods. His contributions span monetary policy, international finance and fiscal policy. He is currently exploring the role of private and public debt on the business cycle, asset prices and the fragility of the financial system, as well as their policy implications. Professor Jordà has also developed methods to study the chronology of the business cycle, the dynamics of macroeconomic systems, and forecasting.

Abstract of the Paper
How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 15 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
Download the paper here.


This webinar is exclusive to staff of SEACEN member Central Banks/Monetary Authorities