Kei-Ichiro Inaba, Chief Forecaster, the Japan Center for Economic Research (currently on secondment from the Bank of Japan) will give an online seminar entitled:
Cross-Border Portfolio Investment Inflows to Emerging Countries: Enhanced Dominance of Global Factors amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
A future hike in short-term rates of interest on the key currency United States dollar runs the risk of becoming a strong cause of foreigners’ selling of emerging countries’ local securities. This suggestion is based upon an analysis of the determinants of their portfolio investment in 17 emerging countries over the period 2012–2020. This analysis also supports a global financial cycle hypothesis stressing the dominant role played by global factors in cross-border portfolio investment inflows to emerging countries but still confirms the effectiveness of destination countries’ local factors, such as short-term interest rates and foreign currency reserves, even in the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.