|Host Name||:The SEACEN Centre|
|Date From||:26 Apr 2022|
|Date To||:26 Apr 2022|
The SEACEN Centre is collaborating with the Asia School of Business (ASB) on this event scheduled for 26 April 2022, 11 AM - 1 PM MYT. It is designed as a Hybrid event, with the speakers and moderators being present in-person along with SEACEN and ASB participants, hosted virtually using the ASB’s Zoom platform.
IMF’s Asia and Pacific Regional Outlook – Spring 2022
While the growth outlook for Asia and the Pacific has been downgraded for 2022, the region remains the world’s most dynamic. Headwinds to the region’s recovery include trade and commodity price spillovers from the Ukraine war, the tightening of financial conditions amid US monetary policy normalization, and COVID developments in some countries. High global food and fuel prices have added inflationary pressure in much of Asia, hurting the poor the most. Medium-term scarring from the pandemic in emerging and developing Asia is expected to be significant. Risks are tilted to the downside and include further escalation of the war in Ukraine, new COVID waves, a larger than expected slowdown in China, and tighter global financial conditions. Over the medium term, the potential fragmentation of supply chains and geopolitical tensions is a big risk to a region that has benefitted from globalization over the last few decades. Rising inflation and slowing growth are worsening an already-difficult tradeoff facing policymakers. With output gaps still large in many countries, the withdrawal of fiscal policy stimulus will need to be well calibrated to support the post-Covid recovery, structural transformation, and protect the vulnerable from rising food and fuel prices while the pace of consolidation is articulated in medium term fiscal frameworks focused on maintaining debt sustainability. In countries with more advanced recoveries, signs of de-anchoring of inflation expectations and/or external pressures, continued tightening of monetary policy will be required.
IMF Launch of World Economic Outlook Analytical Chapters
Mangal Goswami (The SEACEN Centre) and Hans Genberg (ASB)
When COVID-19 hit, the combined supply and demand shock was expected to lead to a dramatic collapse in trade. However, trade in goods bounced back quite rapidly—faster than it has in previous global slowdowns like the global financial crisis. But trade in services still remains sluggish. And some sectors that participate heavily in global value chains, such as automobiles, experienced larger and longer disruptions. Along with on-going disruptions in supply chain logistics, this has prompted calls among policy makers to bring more production on-shore, which would lead to permanent changes in the structure of global value chains. In this context, the chapter investigates the following questions: (1) what were the main drivers of trade in the pandemic; in particular domestic pandemic intensity and pandemic containment policies, as well as international spillovers on trade from pandemic containment policies; (2) how did key GVCs adapt to the pandemic; and (3) what can governments do to help strengthen global value chains against future disruptions, which may arise not just from future health crises, but also from conflict, cyberattacks, or from climate-related weather events?
During the pandemic, and in particular its most acute phase, government policies helped maintain private access to credit, staving off a deeper recession in 2020. This chapter examines whether the resulting increase in leverage may affect the pace of the recovery. As countries prepare to normalize monetary policy, assessing how leverage is distributed and its interaction with countercyclical policies is key to forecasting the pace of the recovery and calibrating the unwinding of pandemic-time support. Analyzes based on micro-level data show that the recovery is likely to be slower in countries where (1) leverage is concentrated among vulnerable firms and low-income households, (2) insolvency procedures are inefficient, (3) public and private deleveraging coincide and (4) monetary policy must be tightened rapidly.
Registration can be done via the Asia School of Business' portal (click here).
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