Descriptions
Forecasting is crucial part of central banks not only from a monetary stability perspective but also from the perspective of financial stability and liquidity policy. Regardless of the end objective, all central banks/monetary authorities must forecast several macroeconomic, financial and prudential variables to make a timely assessment of the economy and therefore their policy decisions. In this course, we will combine lectures on forecasting theory with hands-on computer-based exercises to forecast variables like inflation, GDP growth and non-performing loans. External presenters will be Massimiliano Marcellino from Bocconi University in Milan and Romain Lafarguette from the IMF.
Objectives
At the end of the course, participants will be able to: (1) identify the best forecasting models for macroeconomic, financial and prudential variables; (2) gain experience in forecasting with univariate and multivariate models; (3) be able to perform nowcasts as well as mixed-frequency forecasting; (4) generate fan charts to convey forecast uncertainty; and (5) evaluate forecasting accuracy and other forecast performance measures.
Target audience
Economists working in the monetary policy, financial stability, liquidity policy and research departments of central banks who are interested in learning about cutting edge statistical and econometric methods that can be used in nowcasting, forecasting, and scenario analysis. In addition to producing forecasts how to interpret and communicate forecasts will also be covered.
Important Notes
Participants will need a laptop or a desktop computer. Participants will also need Eviews for most of the empirical illustrations. Some of the Eviews exercises would require the most recent versions of the Eviews as the earlier versions might not be handle certain functionalities. Ideally you have the Eviews version 11, if not versions 9.5 or above.
For the Empirical Illustration in Session 13 the participants need to follow the instructions attached and download the IMF’ GaR Toolbox, which is an Excel interfaced Python program. The guideline is provided by the IMF. Click Here: GaR Toolbox
If you require any clarification about the software requirements please contact Mr. Ozer Karagedikli at ozer(at)seacen.org or Dr. Ole Rummel at orummel(at)seacen.org.
Only participants who complete 80% of the sessions will receive a certificate of completion.
Click here for the full course brochure.
