Research Paper

(RP43) Early Warning System (EWS) of Currency Crises: An Empirical Study of Some SEACEN Countries By Yih-Jiuan Wu Tzung-Ta Yen and Pei-Wen Chen

This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors in predicting the currency crises in a sample of 7 SEACEN countries using the logit econometric models. The empirical results indicate that the variables that may help predict the timing of the currency crises include real US interest rate ratio of import to foreign reserves real effective exchange rate or money multiplier. In particular the model that includes real US interest rate and ratio of import to foreign reserves can forecast better than other models for most of the 7 sample countries.

Author(s): Yih-Jiuan Wu Tzung-Ta Yen and Pei-Wen Chen

Published Date: October 2000

*Get access to the full publication by downloading the PDF below.

The SEACEN Centre newsletter

Delivering quarterly insights on regional and global economic issues.

Follow us wherever you get your content

Newsletter Subscription