As artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly transforms economies, central banks face growing uncertainty about its effects on productivity, inflation, and economic activity. Using firm-level AI adoption data and industry- and region-level evidence from Korea, this paper examines whether the early diffusion of AI has already influenced outcomes relevant to monetary policy. The findings reveal little evidence that AI-intensive industries or regions experienced stronger productivity growth by 2023. However, regions with greater AI adoption showed signs of higher consumer price inflation, particularly in locally provided services such as restaurants. The results suggest that during the early stages of AI diffusion, demand-side effects may emerge before productivity gains become visible. These findings offer important insights for central banks as they assess the macroeconomic implications of AI and incorporate technological change into policy frameworks.
This paper also has a companion blog article on the SUARA SEACEN website, click here to read it.