The authors examine how institutional, fiscal, and external conditions shape monetary transmission in 40 economies over 1991–2022. Using forecast-based policy innovations and local projections, we estimate cumulative CPI price-level and real GDP responses. On average, monetary tightening produces a positive but imprecise price response and a modest, delayed output contraction. Heterogeneity is more pronounced for activity than for prices. GDP declines most clearly in flexible-regime emerging markets, whereas regime differences in price responses are generally weak. The findings point to overlapping institutional and external influences rather than a single dominant transmission mechanism.
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