We are pleased to announce the latest working paper (WP6/2026), authored by SEACEN MMPM Director Dr. Donghyun Park, Prof. Joao Tovar Jalles( Lisbon School of Economics and Management), and John Beirne (ADB).
The authors examine how institutional, fiscal, and external conditions shape monetary transmission in 40 economies over 1991–2022. Using forecast-based policy innovations and local projections, we estimate cumulative CPI price-level and real GDP responses. On average, monetary tightening produces a positive but imprecise price response and a modest, delayed output contraction. Heterogeneity is more pronounced for activity than for prices. GDP declines most clearly in flexible-regime emerging markets, whereas regime differences in price responses are generally weak. The findings point to overlapping institutional and external influences rather than a single dominant transmission mechanism.
Click here to read the Working Paper!
