This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of geopolitical risks and the role of fiscal sustainability in mitigating them. Our empirical analysis exploits a comprehensive database covering 1...
Author(s): Gazi Salah Uddin, Anh H. Le, Naoki Yago, John Beirne and Donghyun Park
Published Date: February , 2026
This paper provides a comprehensive systematic review of the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the global financial landscape. By synthesising 249 peer-reviewed studies publi...
Author(s): Donghyun Park, Yang ZHANG, Ziang QIU, Shu TIAN
Published Date: February , 2026
This paper investigates the asymmetric connectedness between global banks and insurance companies under varying market conditions, with a particular focus on tail risk transmission. Motivated by th...
Author(s): Nur Ain Shahrier, Noureddine Benlaghaa, Fahad Shafiq and Rashid Hassan Al-Derham
Published Date: January , 2026
Could the firms driving the clean-energy transition also hold untapped influence over financial interconnectedness? In this paper we find that climate transition isn’t just an environmental issue....
Author(s): Nur Ain Shahrier, Zaheer Anwar and Milena Migliavacca
Published Date: November , 2025
Climate change, political measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the transition to a carbon-neutral economy have a significant economic impact. In addition to a dampening effect on aggrega...
Author(s): Leef H Dierks
Published Date: November , 2025
Central banks are exploring whether wholesale CBDCs (wCBDCs) can enhance settlement of tokenised assets. Existing RTGS systems could deliver the solutions through APIs. While wCBDCs may streamline...
Author(s): Srichander Ramaswamy
Published Date: November , 2025
This paper investigates the growing role of central banks in promoting sustainable policymaking, with a focus on strategies for mitigating climate risk through financial choices. It underscores the...
Author(s): Meltem Chadwick and Jonathan Thebault
Published Date: May , 2025
In the paper, Meltem and Hulya address a significant gap in the existing literature, which is the association between weather variables, i.e., temperature and precipitation, and food price inflatio...
Author(s): Meltem Chadwick and Hulya Saygili
Published Date: November , 2024
This paper uses MSBF flows dataset to assess capital flows push and pull factors and to provide new evidence on the effectiveness of capital account tightening measures. The results show: (i) highe...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado Jr. and Luca Sanfilippo
Published Date: April , 2024
Stablecoins serve as the nominal anchor against which prices of crypto assets are quoted and traded. But following the failures of the stablecoin Terra and the FTX crypto exchange in 2022, regulato...
Author(s): Srichander Ramaswamy
Published Date: April , 2024
Retail CBDC so far has remained in Sandboxes. This working paper argues why they will continue to remain in Sandboxes so long the amounts one can hold is capped at a low level. Removing the cap on ...
Author(s): Srichander Ramaswamy
Published Date: January , 2024
This study investigates the role of fiscal policy in stabilising resource-rich economies vulnerable to external commodity shocks, with a specific focus on Mongolia. We analyse the...
Author(s): Victor Pontines and Davaajargal Luvsannyam
Published Date: November , 2023
This working paper examines the sacrifice ratio, i.e., the percentage cost of actual production lost to every one percentage point decrease in (trend) inflation, for selected Southeast Asian econom...
Author(s): Leef H. Dierks
Published Date: July , 2023
This paper examines the importance of trade ties, macro-financial volatilities, and US dollar trade invoicing in explaining Asia’s international investment assets and liabilities denominated ...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado, Jr and Paulo Rodelio Halili
Published Date: November , 2022
This paper employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and uses posterior inclusion probability (PIP) values to evaluate which financial inclusion indicators, dimensions, and other determinants of incom...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado, Jr and Victor Pontines
Published Date: October , 2022
Using high-frequency, proprietary data on daily net non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets, our study finds in the time domain connectedness framework that, to varying degrees, there is l...
Author(s): Mangal Goswami, Victor Pontines, and Yassier Mohammed
Published Date: October , 2022
Using novel datasets on both sectoral flows and policy measures, this paper underscores the importance of a granular sectoral approach in identifying the full range of connections between capital f...
Author(s): Daniel Carvalho, Etienne Lepers, Rogelio Mercado, Jr.
Published Date: August , 2022
This paper assesses the covariation between GVCs and MNCs with US dollar share in trade invoicing for Asia and Pacific economies. The results show that Asia and Pacific economies with greater GVC p...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado, Jr, Ryan Jacildo and Sanchita Basu Das
Published Date: July , 2022
By conducting a high-frequency event study similar to Gürkaynak et al. (2005), we find that two factors are needed to adequately capture the effects of monetary policy announcements for a non-...
Author(s): Özer Karagedikli and Sui-Jade Ho
Published Date: August , 2021
In this article we review what machine learning might have to offer central banks as an analytical approach to support monetary policy decisions. After describing the central bank’s “pr...
Author(s): Özer Karagedikli and Hans Genberg
Published Date: March , 2021
This paper assembles a comprehensive sectoral capital flows dataset for 64 advanced and emerging economies from 2000-18, including direct, portfolio, and other investment to and from central banks ...
Author(s): Etienne Lepers, Rogelio Mercado, Jr
Published Date: June , 2020
A new SEACEN Working Paper by Victor Pontines and co-authors from Bank of Mongolia, namely, Davaajargal Luvsannyam, Enkhjin Atarbaatar, Ulziikhutag Munkhtsetseg is now available. The paper titled &...
Author(s): Victor Pontines, Davaajargal Luvsannyam, Enkhjin Atarbaatar, Ulziikhutag Munkhtsetseg
Published Date: March , 2020
A new SEACEN Working Paper by Özer Karagedikli and Ole Rummel titled “Weighing up the Credit-to-GDP gap: A cautionary note” is now available. The authors take a look at the weights...
Author(s): Özer Karagedikli and Ole Rummel
Published Date: February , 2020
A new SEACEN working paper, by Victor Pontines, adds to a recent and growing literature that assesses the effects of macroprudential policy. The effects of LTV ratio shocks in Korea were identified...
Author(s): Dr. Victor Pontines
Published Date: January , 2020
A new SEACEN working paper, by Rogelio Mercado and Shanty Noviantie, considers the varying significance of network systemic and idiosyncratic factors in explaining an economy’s financial cent...
Author(s): Rogelio V. Mercado, Jr & Shanty Noviantie
Published Date: December , 2019
Using a unique data on provincial net factor income flows disaggregated across the three asset classes of debt, equity and FDI reinvested earnings in Korea, we investigated how these asset channels...
Author(s): Dr. Victor Pontines
Published Date: February , 2019
In this paper, we empirically assess the importance of gravity-type variables and measures of macroeconomic and financial volatilities in explaining portfolio holdings denominated across the main g...
Author(s): Rogelio V. Mercado, Jr., Caroline Mehigan and Vahagn Galstyan
Published Date: January , 2019
This study estimates a variety of small dynamic factor macro models where the factors are time-varying. Different assumptions are made about the long-run impact of these shocks, including allowing ...
Author(s): Pierre L. Siklos
Published Date: October , 2018
Using bilateral capital flows data from 10 advanced reporting economies—with over 186 bilateral country pairs—for 2000 to 2016, this paper provides strong evidence on the significance o...
Author(s): Dr. Rogelio Mercado, Jr
Published Date: September , 2018
This research paper focuses on the increase in household debt that many SEACEN economies have been experiencing since the 2010. In particular, the paper shed lights on the link between house prices...
Author(s): Maria Teresa Punzi
Published Date: August , 2018
This study estimates the effect of macroprudential policy changes on bank credit growth. The general pattern of the evidence from SEACEN economies suggests that credit-related macroprudential polic...
Author(s): Jugnu Ansari
Published Date: August , 2018
Along the lines of the treatment effects literature, this paper empirically revisits the issue of the so-called “intervention effect”, i.e., the effectiveness of official foreign exchan...
Author(s): Victor Pontines
Published Date: March , 2018
Holdings of cross-border bilateral assets are highly responsive to information frictions, market size, transaction costs, and trade ties. But empirical support using transactions data are con...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado, Jr.
Published Date: February , 2018
This paper introduces a new index of financial inclusion for 151 economies using principal component analysis to compute weights for aggregating 9 indicators of access, availability, and usage. It ...
Author(s): Cyn-Young Park and Rogelio Mercado Jr.
Published Date: January , 2018
This paper employs the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique to extract the credit and housing cycles in the four emerging East Asian economies of Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, and thes...
Author(s): Victor Pontines
Published Date: December , 2017
This paper sets out to assess whether gross capital inflows to the Philippines are expansionary or contractionary in line with the model predictions and empirical findings of Blanchard et al. (2015...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado, Jr.
Published Date: October , 2017
This paper extends the literature on gross capital flows by looking into domestic factors that covary significantly with cross-country differences in the transitional likelihoods of moving between ...
Author(s): Rogelio Mercado, Jr.
Published Date: September , 2017
Asian emerging market economies have recovered relatively well from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Emerging Asia has been quite successful in maintaining both macroeconomic and financial stabili...
Author(s): Hans Genberg
Published Date: August , 2017
Stress testing has become one of the key prudential tools for Central Banks and Regulators following the financial crisis in the US, Europe and UK during 2007-2009. That period highlighted the inad...
Author(s): Aziz Durrani
Published Date: July , 2017
In this research, using Content Analysis, we examine 48 minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and press releases of the Bank of Thailand from 2011 to 2016 and from 2008 to 2016, resp...
Author(s): Vincent Lim CS
Published Date: June , 2017
This paper provides a review and appraisal of financial integration initiatives and outcomes in Asia. For the purposes of the paper, the term Asia refers to economies in a geographical area s...
Author(s): Hans Genberg
Published Date: May , 2017
Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) measures the effect on inflation of the changes in the exchange rate. In contrast to the relative richness of available literature on ERPT, more recent studies tha...
Author(s): Vic Delloro, Eloisa T. Glindro and Sarah Jane Alarcon
Published Date: April , 2017
The developing world needs the equivalent of USD 1 to 1.5 trillion per year in finance for infrastructure development expenditures to reach the millennium development goals by 2030. Given this chal...
Author(s): Hans Genberg
Published Date: April , 2017
Compared to advance economies in the West, Asian emerging market have recovered relatively well from the Great Recession of 2008-09 A contributory factor were lessons learned from the Asian Financi...
Author(s): Hans Genberg
Published Date: April , 2017
Understanding the effect of monetary policy (change in interest rate) on several sub-components of inflation, as some of them are believed to be dominated by other than demand-side dynamics, is imp...
Author(s): . Gangadaran
Published Date: February , 2017
This paper characterizes proxy measures of financial cycles using available data on four East Asian economies, viz., Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Spectral analysis is ado...
Author(s): Dr. Victor Pontines
Published Date: December , 2016
In this paper we analyze the extent to which people’s changing beliefs about the timing of the exit from Quantitative Easing (“tapering”) impact asset prices. To quantify be...
Author(s): Annette Meinusch and Peter Tillmann
Published Date: August , 2016
It is well documented that before the East Asian 1997 crisis both the banking and corporate sectors of many Asian economies had become fragile through the accumulation of short-term debt that...
Author(s): Spiros Bougheas, Hosung Lim, Simona Mateut, Paul Mizen and Cihan Yalcin
Published Date: July , 2016
The paper attempts to investigate the validity of the Path-Goal leadership theory in the central bank fraternity, in particular the relationship between leader style and job satisfaction. From the ...
Author(s): Lim Choon Yang and Vincent Lim CS
Published Date: April , 2016
Economies with less developed financial markets might find their integration into global financial markets associated with volatility in capital flows. Such variability can prove to be disruptive t...
Author(s): Chris Becker
Published Date: February , 2016
The global financial crisis underlined that sound and effective bank regulation is vital to financial stability. Assessments of the global financial crisis invariably point to ineffective finance r...
Author(s): Michael J. Zamorski and Minsoo Lee
Published Date: November , 2015
This paper raises a very important question for inflation targeting (IT) central banks. Given the multiple objectives, should financial stability be an implicit objective of IT? It is argued that o...
Author(s): Delano S. Villanueva
Published Date: October , 2015
Bank credit is traditionally the largest source of finance in the Asia-Pacific region, but the role of capital markets has increased over time. There is substantial heterogeneity across count...
Author(s): Hans Genberg
Published Date: October , 2015
Countercyclical capital buffer (CCCB) has been incorporated in the Basel III framework with the aim of ensuring that banking sector capital requirements take account of the macro-financial environm...
Author(s): aurabh Ghosh
Published Date: April , 2015
This paper analyzes the effects of the trade and financial networks on the propagation of the global financial crisis of 2008. We adopt a new methodology that incorporates a dynamic network approac...
Author(s): Changmo Ahn, Gyemin Lee and Dongkoo Chang
Published Date: August , 2014
With revolutionary changes of the financial environment, due in particular to the progress of information and communication technology and the aftermath of the global financial crisis, central bank...
Author(s): Pages 18
Published Date: June , 2014
The paper discusses a possible policy strategy towards achieving an investment grade status for emerging economies. Through the use of an econometric model, it determines which among the macroecono...
Author(s): Eufrocinio M. Bernabe, Jr. and Dongkoo Chang
Published Date: May , 2014
This paper investigates the impact of interest rate policy on employment using Korean data (1982.1/4~2012.4/4). Based on the analyses of impulse response functions, it was found that interest rate ...
Author(s): Dongkoo Chang and Jami’ah Jaffar
Published Date: May , 2014
Based on our empirical results, using the Extreme Value theory, we conclude that stock market performance, particularly in times of vulnerabilities, does contain some information which may signal a...
Author(s): Choon-Seng Lim, Vincent and Nurulhuda Mohd. Hussain
Published Date: March , 2014
Most of the developing countries in the past were striving to maintain a comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover imports of goods and services. These days, se...
Author(s): Min B. Shrestha and Theresia A. Wansi
Published Date: March , 2014
Can a research and training institute excel in both research (R) and training (T) by crafting a “synergistic relationship” to produce what Aristotle would say “the who...
Author(s): Choon-Seng Lim, Vincent and Seow Yun Yee
Published Date: March , 2014
Central banks have increasingly been given explicit financial stability mandates and as a result, macroprudential policies have become the buzz word in central bank and regulatory circles as well a...
Author(s): Hans Genberg and Michael Zamorski
Published Date: April , 2026
